A Sovereign Europe: The West's Last Stand for Democracy
Since Donald Trump’s second inauguration in the end of January 2025, the West’s geopolitical environment has changed dramatically. Washington has shifted from a broadly cooperative transatlantic stance under the previous Biden-Harris administration to a far more confrontational, transactional posture. If this trajectory continues, it amounts to a 180° reversal in U.S. policy toward Europe.
How did this came about?
After the second Trump administration started its term on the 20th January 2025 it was fast to reduce much of the US economic and logistical support for Ukraine – which is in a defensive war against Russia since 2022 – and started to spread views and falsehoods against Europe.
The new escalation of the deterioration of the transatlantic alliance was the "Liberation Day" where the European Union as a whole market was hit with tariffs of twenty percent – a symbol against a strong and united European Common Market capable of competing with US economic hegemony. This did cause a worldwide reaction – other countries were themselves hit with a tariff of at least ten percent –, retaliatory tariffs and the starting of communities like Buy from EU.
Newest developments
In the start of December 2025 was a new National Security Strategy paper released by the second Trump administration. You would think "so far – so good" but that paper is different from older National Security Strategy papers as this is not a routine rewording of old talking points. The new US National Security Strategy recasts Europe less as a partner to be steadied and more as a theatre in which Washington will pursue transactional bargains and – in places – actively shape domestic politics and political landscapes.
It also shifts the adversary position from Russia to the European Union and proposes that the US should “cultivate resistance” inside Europe. Which means that what had long been framed as “common interest” between Europe and the US – shared values, collective defence, coordinated diplomatic posture – is now being replaced by a transactional, interest‑first paradigm. For many European states, this risks undermining decades of post‑war integration and cooperation.
After three years of large-scale US support, international trackers show a sharp decline in some categories of military aid through mid-to-late 2025 – even as humanitarian and EU funding streams remain active – leaving Kyjiw to rely more heavily on European and multilateral support mechanisms for urgent requirements.
What comes now?
If the current trajectory of US foreign policy continues – transactional, ideologically driven, and dismissive of Europe as a partner – then Europe must stop treating the US as a security guarantor. Instead, it ought to embrace sovereignty and collective resilience. Because the reality is stark: in a world of shifting power balances, Europe’s survival as a global actor depends on its ability to act independently and united.
The US was a shining beacon of democracy and freedom. The stature of liberty is a symbol of that. If the current trajectory of US policy continues to move forward then this position changes and the beacon of democracy will become another authoritarian state in this world. When and if that happens a united Europe would stand alone for democracy and it's values and if it accepts that it can no longer take foreign guarantees for granted, it may rediscover and reinforce its own strengths: political cohesion, economic integration, and a shared commitment to pluralistic democracy.
A sovereign, self‑reliant Europe that acts with confidence and solidarity could become not a vassal of global power games, but a proactive actor shaping its own destiny. If the U.S. falters, Europe may yet rise – not as a follower, but as a beacon of stability. And maybe, in that transformed Europe, the values once championed by the West will endure – because they were defended by Europeans themselves.
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